The last click before a user disappears is visible, tempting and often misleading. Churn can reflect an unmet need, a broken expectation, seasonality or friction accumulated over several sessions.
Define the silence
A lapsed interval should reflect the natural frequency of value. Seven inactive days means something different in food delivery, investment and travel. Use observed return rhythms and business context to set a threshold.
Read backwards in windows
Compare the final session, the previous few sessions and the user's earlier healthy pattern. Look for changes in success, latency, content relevance, price, support contact or failed actions. Compare against retained users at a similar lifecycle stage.
Separate preventable from natural churn
Some needs end. Some customers move outside the addressable market. Label these possibilities before launching interventions that may create notification fatigue. Focus effort where the product can credibly restore value.